Key Points:
- Coordinated policy actions helped curb inflation and sustain strong growth. Despite elevated global uncertainty, higher tariffs, and associated spillovers, India has successfully managed to bring down inflation while maintaining robust growth. Inflation has fallen sharply—now below target at 1.5%—supported by close coordination between the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and fiscal authorities. The RBI’s inflation-targeting framework has served the country well by combining clear communication, transparency, and flexibility. Supply-side interventions and fiscal consolidation have further anchored macroeconomic stability and supported growth of around 6.8 percent.
- Limited growth impact from tariffs amid domestic resilience. While higher tariffs have dampened business sentiment and delayed investment, the impact on growth has been somewhat limited given that India is a largely domestic-driven economy. Looking ahead, the authorities are aiming to boost competitiveness and productivity and facilitate capital inflows to further strengthen external resilience and increase private investment.
- Leveraging CBDC to facilitate more efficient cross-border payments. The RBI views CBDC as a key instrument to enhance cross-border payments rather than a tool for domestic transactions, where digital systems are already advanced. Pilot programs are underway at both retail and wholesale levels. The RBI favors CBDC over stablecoins, viewing it as a safer digital alternative that preserves the singleness and integrity of money while minimizing risks to monetary policy and financial stability.
Quotes:
“Uncertainty, as we are all aware, is holding back on the animal spirits.” Sanjay Malhotra
“India is mostly a domestic-driven economy, so while we are impacted by the higher tariffs, It's not a matter of huge concern.” Sanjay Malhotra
“With more countries becoming inward-looking, global growth being kind of subdued and still below pre-pandemic levels, what it means for all of us, is that we look structurally as to how we improve our own competitiveness, our productivity, so that we are not only able to expand exports, we are able to diversify exports, and we are able to get some good, durable capital inflows." Sanjay Malhotra
Contributor: Mentor Mehmedi
