Lower trade barriers and greater openness to trade have been historically associated with higher income growth in many countries, but this relationship has not been foolproof. For instance, some countries with the highest growth of exports and GDP during the heyday of the “Washington Consensus” followed heterodox development policies involving sizable trade barriers and hefty subsidies to domestic industries, and some of them still closely control the flow of capital across their borders. What have we learned from those distinct development policies? Should countries identify external “competitiveness” and avoidance of de-industrialization with maximization of social welfare? Under which circumstances is unfettered globalization incompatible with political stability and well-functioning democracies? Should we expect large emerging market economies to take the lead in the trade liberalization agenda going forward? This session will shed fresh light on these important policy issues.
The seminar focused on the linkages between trade and development against the backdrop of a rising anti-globalization sentiment in advanced economies, and how emerging and developing economies can support growth going forward.
Moderator: Min Zhu, President, National Institute of Financial Research, Tsinghua University
Panelists:
Keyu Jin, Associate Professor of Economics, LSE
Paul Krugman, Distinguished Professor of Economics, CUNY and Princeton University
Dani Rodrik, Ford Professor of International Political Economy, Harvard University
The seminar focused on the linkages between trade and development against the backdrop of a rising anti-globalization sentiment in advanced economies, and how emerging and developing economies can support growth going forward.
Key Points:
Quotes:
“Manufacturing is becoming less and less a powerful escalator for growth.” Dani Rodrik
“We want to make trade do all kinds of things that in fact our models don’t say it does. The model of comparative advantage says that there are gains from trade. It does not say that liberalization produces a permanent increase in growth rates.” Paul Krugman
“It’s often the case that [these strategies work] when its trade and something else that works. Going on China’s example, it’s trade and FDI.” Keyu Jin
Min Zhu
President
National Institute of Financial Research
Dr. Min Zhu is currently the Chairman of the National Institute of Financial Research at Tsinghua University, he is also a board trustee member of the World Economic Forum. Dr. Zhu was a Deputy Managing Director at IMF from July 2011 to July 2016. Dr. Zhu was a Deputy Governor of the People’s Bank of China, and prior to his service at China’s Central Bank, he served as a Group Executive Vice President of the Bank of China. Dr. Zhu also worked at the World Bank and taught economics at both Johns Hopkins University and Fudan University.
Dr. Zhu received his Ph.D and M.A. in economics from Johns Hopkins University, an M.P.A. from the Woodrow Wilson School of Public International Affairs at Princeton University, and a B.A. in economics from Fudan University. Dr. Zhu was awarded as China Economic Leader in 2014, as Global Influential Chinese in 2015, and as CFV-10 year Global Financial Leader in 2016.
Keyu Jin
Associate Professor of Economics
London School of Economics
Dr. Keyu Jin is an associate professor of economics at the London School of Economics, where she researches on topics of globalization and the Chinese economy. She is from Beijing, China, and holds a B.A., M.A., and PhD from Harvard University. Her multiple academic works on international macroeconomic and China have been published in the top journals in Economics, such as the American Economic Review. She sits on the editorial board of the Review of Economic Studies, and is a columnist for Project Syndicate and Caixin magazine—the main economics and finance magazine in China. She serves as a non-executive director to Richemont Group, and is on the Medici Committee for Amundi. In the past, she has consulted for the World Bank, the IMF, the New York Fed, Goldman Sachs, and other financial institutions.
Paul Krugman
Distinguished Professor of Economics
The City University of New York and Princeton University
Paul Krugman is a Distinguished Professor at the City University of New York’s Graduate Center, where he is a fellow at the Stone Center for the Study of Socioeconomic Inequality, and an op-ed columnist for The New York Times. He previously taught at MIT, Stanford, and Princeton. He is the author or co-author of many academic papers and numerous books aimed at both professional and general audiences, including Market Structure and Foreign Trade, Geography and Trade, and The Return of Depression Economics.
In recognition of his work on international trade and economic geography, Krugman received the John Bates Clark award of the American Economic Association in 1991, the Prince of Asturias award for social sciences in 2004, and the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences in 2008.
Dani Rodrik
Ford Foundation Professor of International Political Economy
Harvard University
Dani Rodrik is Ford Foundation Professor of International Political Economy at the Harvard Kennedy School. He has published widely in the areas of economic development, international economics, and political economy. His current research focuses on the political economy of liberal democracy and economic growth in developing countries. He is the recipient of the inaugural Albert O. Hirschman Prize of the Social Sciences Research Council and of the Leontief Award for Advancing the Frontiers of Economic Thought. His newest book is Straight Talk on Trade: Ideas for a Sane World Economy (2017, forthcoming). He is also the author of Economics Rules: The Rights and Wrongs of the Dismal Science (2015), The Globalization Paradox: Democracy and the Future of the World Economy (2011) and One Economics, Many Recipes: Globalization, Institutions, and Economic Growth (2007).