The global financial crisis has placed the concept of systemic risk at the centerstage for the guardians of financial stability. While efforts by central banks and regulatory authorities since the crisis have led to groundbreaking advances in identification and measurement of systemic risk, less explored is the use of these measurements in implementing policy. In this seminar, a group of senior policymakers will discuss the conceptual and operational progress made in this area, the lessons learned, and the remaining gaps that would benefit from further work at the international level.
Panelists discussed systemic risks in their domains, the role of macroprudential stress-testing in identifying and assessing systemic risk, and data and modeling challenges.
Moderator: Tobias Adrian, Director, Monetary and Capital Markets Department, IMF
Panelists:
Claudia Buch, Vice-President, Deutsche Bundesbank
Jon Cunliffe, Deputy Governor for Financial Stability, Bank of England
Hyun Song Shin, Economic Adviser and Head of Research, BIS
Daniel Tarullo, former Governor, United States Federal Reserve Board
Carolyn Wilkins, Senior Deputy Governor, Bank of Canada
Key Points:
Quotes:
“We still have data gaps ... there are questions about transmission channels of systemic risk and the nexus between sovereigns and financial institutions.” Tobias Adrian, Director, MCM
“When you want to get to the heart of vulnerability you need to look at the micro data which involves looking at the distribution of the debt, who is holding it, where is it concentrated, what does the distribution of debt service ratios looks like, what do debt-to-income ratios look like.” Carolyn A. Wilkins, Senior Deputy Governor, Bank of Canada
“There is still a lot of uncertainty, so there have to be sufficient buffers in the system.” Claudia Buch, Vice-President, Deutsche Bundesbank
“We have to think about the larger picture because after all systemic risk is about the system, so we have to think about the change of structure of intermediation, new funding sources, and take a global perspective.” Hyun Song Shin, BIS
“You can’t hit every target. You do have to choose what system to do the stress test on.” Jon Cunliffe, Deputy Governor for Financial Stability, Bank of England
Tobias Adrian
Financial Counselor and Director
Monetary Capital Markets Department, IMF
Tobias Adrian is the Financial Counsellor and Director of the Monetary and Capital Markets Department of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). In this capacity, he leads the IMF’s work on financial sector surveillance, monetary and macroprudential policies, financial regulation, debt management, and capital markets. He also oversees capacity building activities in IMF member countries, particularly with regard to the supervision and regulation of financial systems, central banking, monetary and exchange rate regimes, and asset and liability management.
Prior to joining the IMF, Mr. Adrian was a Senior Vice President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the Associate Director of the Research and Statistics Group. At the Federal Reserve, he contributed to monetary policy, financial stability policies, and crisis management.
Mr. Adrian taught at Princeton University and New York University and has published extensively in economics and finance journals, including the American Economic Review, Journal of Finance, Journal of Financial Economics, and Review of Financial Studies. His research spans asset pricing, financial institutions, monetary policy, and financial stability, with a focus on aggregate consequences of capital markets developments.
Mr. Adrian holds a Ph.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, an MSc from the London School of Economics, a Diplom from Goethe University Frankfurt, and a Maîtrise from Dauphine University Paris. He received his Abitur in Literature and Mathematics from Humboldtschule Bad Homburg.
Claudia Buch
Vice-President
Deutsche Bundesbank
Professor Claudia M Buch is the Vice-President of the Deutsche Bundesbank. She is responsible for Financial Stability, Statistics and Internal Audit. Professor Buch is the accompanying person of the President of the Bundesbank on the ECB Governing Council and a member of the German Financial Stability Committee (FSC).
Prior to joining the Bundesbank in May 2014, she was the President of the Institute for Economic Research (IWH) in Halle (2013-2014), Professor of Economics at the Otto von Guericke University Magdeburg (2013-2014), and Professor of Economics for “International Finance and Macroeconomics” at the University of Tübingen (2004-2013). From 2012 to 2014, she was a member of the German Council of Economic Experts. She was Scientific Director at the Institute for Applied Economic Research (IAW) in Tübingen (2005-2013), and worked at the Institute for World Economics in Kiel (IfW) from 1992 until 2013.
She habilitated at the University of Kiel (2002) after receiving her doctorate there in 1996. Between 1985 and 1991, she studied Economics at the University of Bonn and she graduated from the University of Wisconsin (Eau Claire) with a Master of Business Administration degree in 1988. Her fields of specialisation are financial stability, international banking, international finance and macroeconomics, and financial integration.
Jon Cunliffe
Deputy Governor for Financial Stability
Bank of England
Jon Cunliffe became Deputy Governor for Financial Stability on 1 November 2013. Jon is a member of the Bank’s Financial Policy and Monetary Policy Committees, the Bank’s Court of Directors and the Prudential Regulatory Committee.
He has specific responsibility within the Bank for the supervision and oversight of Financial Market Infrastructures, for Resolution and for the provision of Emergency Liquidity Assistance. He is a member of the G20 Financial Stability Board Steering Committee, the Bank for International Settlements’ Board of Directors and the European Systemic Risk Board.
Hyun Song Shin
Economic Adviser and Head of Research
Bank for International Settlements
Hyun Song Shin took up the position of Economic Adviser and Head of Research at the BIS on 1 May 2014. Before joining the BIS, Mr Shin was the Hughes-Rogers Professor of Economics at Princeton University. In 2010, on leave from Princeton, he served as Senior Adviser to the Korean president, taking a leading role in formulating financial stability policy in Korea and developing the agenda for the G20 during Korea's presidency. From 2000 to 2005, he was Professor of Finance at the London School of Economics. He holds a DPhil and MPhil in Economics from Oxford University (Nuffield College) and a BA in Philosophy, Politics and Economics from the same university.
Daniel Tarullo
Former Governor
United States Federal Reserve Board
Daniel K. Tarullo was a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System from January 2009 to April 2017. As the Deputy Governor in charge of Financial Stability, he led the Fed's work to craft a new regulatory framework following the financial crisis. During his time on the Board, he served as Chairman of the Board's Committee on Supervision and Regulation. He was also Chairman of the Financial Stability Board's Standing Committee on Supervisory and Regulatory Cooperation. Before joining the Board, Tarullo was Professor of Law at Georgetown University Law Center. He has also served in several senior positions, including in the Clinton administration.
Carolyn Wilkins
Senior Deputy Governor
Bank of Canada
Carolyn Wilkins was appointed as the Bank of Canada’s Senior Deputy Governor in 2014, for a seven-year term. She is the first woman to occupy this position at the Bank.
As Senior Deputy Governor, Ms. Wilkins oversees the strategic planning and economic and financial research of the Bank. She also shares responsibility for the conduct of monetary policy with the other members of Governing Council, and she is a member of the Bank’s Board of Directors.
Ms. Wilkins has more than a decade of experience with financial system regulation. As head of the Bank’s Financial Markets Department, she was in the trenches during the 2007–09 global financial crisis. Now, she brings the Canadian perspective to international authorities. She represents the Bank at the Financial Stability Board and chaired the FinTech Issues Group, an international committee that studies key supervisory and regulatory issues related to fintech from a financial stability perspective. She also led the Basel Committee’s working group to develop new liquidity regulations, which will help lower the risk of another financial crisis.
Ms. Wilkins is a global leader on financial technology (fintech) and regulation. She is also a member of the high-level advisory group on fintech of the International Monetary Fund—the only central banker to be asked to join the panel.