Location: HQ1 Atrium, HQ1-1-700
Global growth is expected to remain below its pre-crisis average. The prolonged period of low growth, combined with large increases in inequality over the past 20 years in many countries, risks creating a political climate characterized by discontent and the likelihood of a resort to populist and inward-looking policies. During this debate, panelists will discuss the existing barriers to growth, the economic and geopolitical risks that continue to threaten the stability and resilience of the global economy, and the policy measures needed to raise growth and make it more inclusive.
Richard Quest, CNN
Richard Quest is anchor of Quest Means Business of CNN and hosts the monthly program CNN Business Traveller and CNN Marketplace Europe. He formerly anchored the monthly show Quest and the daily show CNN Today. Prior to joining CNN, Quest worked at the BBC, where he was the North America business correspondent, based on Wall Street for 12 years. Quest is British and holds an LLB (Hons) degree in Law from Leeds University.
Christine Lagarde, Managing Director, IMF
Christine Lagarde has been Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund since July 2011. She held various ministerial positions within the French government, including Finance and Economy Minister (2007–11), Minister for Foreign Trade, and Minister for Agriculture and Fisheries. She was also Chairman of the Global Exchange Committee and Global Strategic Committee of Baker & McKenzie.
Mark Carney, Chairman of Financial Stability Board
Mark Carney is Governor of the Bank of England and Chairman of the Monetary Policy Committee, Financial Policy Committee and the Board of the Prudential Regulation Authority. The Governor joined the Bank on 1 July 2013. In addition to his duties as Governor of the Bank of England, he serves as Chairman of the Financial Stability Board (FSB), First Vice-Chair of the European Systemic Risk Board, a member of the Group of Thirty and the Foundation Board of the World Economic Forum.
Wolfgang Schäuble, Federal Finance Minister, Germany
Dr. Wolfgang Schäuble has been Federal Finance Minister since 2009. Schäuble, who was born in 1942 in Freiburg, was Federal Minister for Special Tasks and Head of the Federal Chancellery from 1984 to 1989. He served as Federal Minister of the Interior from 1989 to 1991 and from 2005 to 2009. Wolfgang Schäuble studied law and economics at the universities of Freiburg and Hamburg. He is a member of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU).
Yi Gang, Deputy Governor, People's Bank of China
Yi Gang has been the Deputy Governor of the People's Bank of China since 2008. A native of Beijing, Yi Gang became secretary-general of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China in 2002. From 2009 to 2016 he was Director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE). And in 2014 he was named Deputy Director, General Office for Central Leading Group for Finance and Economics. Yi is the author of ten books, and he served as a consultant for the Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, the Journal of Econometrics, China Economic Review, Comparative Economic Studies, Economic Theory, Contemporary Policy Issues, and the Journal of Asian Economics. He also serves on the editorial board of the China Economic Review and the Journal of Asian Economics.
Contributor: Rodolfo Dall’Orto
Global growth is expected to remain too low for too long, benefitting too few. This, combined with increasing inequality in some countries, risks creating a political climate characterized by discontent and resort to populist and inward-looking policies. During this debate, panelists discussed the existing barriers to growth, the economic and geopolitical risks that continue to threaten the stability and resilience of the global economy, and the policy measures needed to raise growth and make it more inclusive.
- Lagarde emphasized that current growth is not enough to increase productivity and create the necessary jobs. Carney added that growth is not inclusive enough; it takes time to bear the fruits of trade and technology and, until that happens, policymakers need to redistribute the benefits and reconnect the population with the global economy.
- Schäuble noted that the main problem is increasing political risks (e.g., Brexit and the U.S. election campaign) and rising inequality, and pointed to a lack of trust in the elites-both political and economic leaders—and the media across different countries. Carney also pointed to economic and economic policy uncertainty.
- Lagarde called for action to move us out of the new mediocre; she called on the G20 to act now on agreed commitments, particularly the structural reform agenda. Schäuble noted that the German G20 presidency, next year, will focus on enhancing resilience and promoting investment, especially in Africa.
- Schäuble stressed that the argument for globalization has to be made, and countries must have in mind that they cannot only think of their national interests in a globalized economy. Carney stressed that, to regain people’s trust, policymakers must: (i) deliver on what people have asked them to do (e.g., the financial regulatory agenda, which has been there for almost a decade now) and (ii) be clear about both the positives of globalization (e.g., hundreds of millions of people lifted out of poverty) and the challenges posed by the distribution of the benefits.
- Carney underscored that monetary policy has been overburdened, and that there is a need for a better balance between fiscal, monetary, and structural policies across the world. He stressed that it is not for central banks to address the distributional consequences of their policies; it is for the governments to offset them if they so choose. Schäuble noted that, in current circumstances, policymakers cannot rely on monetary or fiscal policies to enhance growth; rather, investment, infrastructure reform, and social cohesion need to be improved. Carney highlighted that extraordinary low interest rates provide a unique opportunity for public investment, including green investment. Lagarde called on all countries to look at what available fiscal space and other policies they have and to use them to boost growth.
- To make trade tangible, Carney emphasized that multinational trade deals or TPP-like agreements have to be complemented with consistent domestic policies, and deals that benefit small and medium-size enterprises, that leverage technology, and integrate training programs to allow people to reconnect to the global economy. Yi noted that free trade will promote welfare around the globe, but policymakers need to deal with the issue of inclusiveness as well as uneven growth and income distribution. China wants to improve the system, increase representation, and listen more to the needs of the population.
Lagarde did not comment on whether the United States and Europe will continue to manage the World Bank and the IMF, respectively, in five years. She underscored, however, that the IMF is much stronger than five years ago, thanks to the quota and governance reforms and the recent inclusion of the renminbi in the SDR basket.
- Schäuble did not comment on whether the German government would bail out Deutsche Bank if necessary.
“It is not just about Germany using its fiscal space, it is about all countries looking at what tools and space they have. All countries can do something.” Christine Lagarde, Managing Director, International Monetary Fund
“Monetary policy has been overburdened. We need a better balance between monetary, fiscal, and structural policies.” Mark Carney, Governor, Bank of England, United Kingdom
“Only if Europe is doing well, Germany can do well.” Wolfgang Schäuble, Federal Finance Minister, Germany
“If we fail to hold Europe together, we will fail to bring this globalized world more together.” Wolfgang Schäuble, Federal Finance Minister, Germany
“I am a believer of free trade. Free trade will promote the welfare of human kind.” Yi Gang, Deputy Governor of the People's Bank of China, China